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楼市“变脸”!本月两个消息发酵,类似2013年,专家:年底见分晓

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I recently saw a friend leave a message complaining about how hard the life of a highly leveraged loan after buying a house.

There is no money for people to come and go.

Some people say that buying a house is only a few years old. Now, the crimes that have been suffered, such as rising house prices and high incomes, are nothing at all. In this friend’s view, I don’t know when this day is a head.

Tolstoy’s words are true: happy families have the same happiness, but unfortunate families have their own misfortunes.

On the surface, there seems to be a car with a house. In fact, it carries a heavy debt. It is better to say that it has a new "shackle" when it comes to "buying a house dream". Although people in the bureau feel unbearable, But everyone still pin their hopes on the real estate appreciation and then realise it, looking forward to one day "turning over".

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It is a pity that I did not wait for the "turn over", but instead waited for the property market to "turn over the face."

In July, there were two seemingly inconspicuous news that began to “ferment”.

First, the number of buildings with delayed delivery is increasing.

At the peak of a certain city in Central China, there are more than 300 problems in real estate. The price of sea-view houses in a certain city in the coastal area has returned to ten years ago, and even in the outer suburbs of some first- and second-tier cities, similar problems have arisen, either delaying the delivery of houses or handing over houses. After the goods are not on the board, cut corners, the developers have completed the task.

As we all know, 2016 is recognized as the "king of the king", the national total price of the king, the unit price of the king and the premium rate of more than 100% of the "three high" plots, appearing in four second-tier cities: Nanjing won 19 seats, Next is 14 seats in Suzhou, 11 seats in Hefei and 10 seats in Hangzhou.

Not only the second-tier cities, with the outbreak of Evergrande and Country Garden in the third- and fourth-tier property market, the slightly-scale housing enterprises have regarded the following cities and counties as the main battlefield for performance growth.

xx开发商积极扩张的代价是经营杠杆的快速增长。根据数据显示,自2016年第四季度以来,住房企业预收款项比例从29.4%攀升至34.4%,创三年新高。

也就是说,买家退回的款项并没有被开发商用来加快施工进度,而是把钱投入土地市场。

从长远来看,这将不可避免地导致建筑面积的增长率下降,从而延迟交货时间。

如果它在一个大城市,买家的回报非常强烈,或者像一个强大且资金紧张的住房公司,充其量只会延长一段时间,并且不会产生太大影响。

如果它是一个低于第三线的城市,一些经济实力不足的中小型开发商将会遇到延迟交付甚至运行的问题。

其次,旧城改造已成为热门话题。

根据住房和城乡建设部发布的数据,全国17万个社区,涉及4200多万居民和数亿人,建筑面积约40亿平方米,迫切需要改善他们的生活。

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想象一条狭窄的道路,充满破败的橱柜和家庭住宅,从整体加固,到外部保温,涂装,供水,供暖,供气和电路的增加已经重新设计,也取代了窗户,密封的阳台它内外焕然一新,这一变化将给房地产市场带来新的动力。

根据中信证券明明债券研究团队的报告,初步估计,需要全面改造的中国城区旧区总投资可高达4万亿元。如果转型期为五年,每年的投资可增加约8000亿元。棚屋棚屋减少造成资金缺口。

我们必须知道,在过去三年中,房地产实际上是由棚屋驱动的。搬迁的家庭花了巨资“扫房子”,导致许多城市房地产库存短缺,房价上涨是合理的。

然而,当棚屋和货币化逐渐淡出我们的视野时,房地产业作为一个年销售面积为17亿平方米,销售额达15万亿的巨大市场,我们下一步该怎么做?

同时,它将推动建筑材料,建筑机械,家具和家用电器等周边产业的发展。

因此,我们可以将旧社区转变为未来房地产市场的新“引擎”。

如上所述,尽管这两个消息似乎很枯燥,但它们引起了房地产行业的极大关注。

原因很简单。无论是延迟交付房屋,还是房地产市场转向新的“引擎”,都与2013年类似。

2013年几点?

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房地产市场有记忆。从2013年下半年开始,房屋销售面积继续上升。当时,房价同比增长率从2014年9月的9.1%继续下降,最低达-1.1%,商品房销售面积从2013年2月开始。下降49.5% ,2014年9月达到-8.6%。截至2014年底,销售面积已超过7亿平方米。

从2013年到2014年,面对巨大的库存压力,住房企业开始在中小城市的布局上竞争,棚子改为货币化安置,以及农民进城购房的概念。城市群引发了2015年。之后,房价上涨。

在7月的前十天,情况与过去非常相似,但情况略有不同。

上周,长江证券研究所宏观分析师赵薇指出,2019年第四季度将是住宅竣工的高峰期,可以关注11月和12月竣工数据的变化。

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In terms of regions, there is a large gap between the completion of the eastern region and the sales of 期房. Among them, Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other provinces (cities) are facing greater pressure on delivery this year. In addition, there are certain pressures for delivery in Hubei, Anhui and Jiangxi in the central region, Chongqing, Guangxi and Guizhou in the western region.

The meaning of the experts is very clear, and everything will wait until the end of the year to see the results.

Perhaps the city you are in is constantly sending news of real estate delays, maybe the entire market is revitalized for the old community, whether it is good news or bad news, before the end of the year, there is no large-scale completion of the residential, do not deal with these news a.

The property market is indeed "turning the face", but only for those who have high hopes for the appreciation of the property.

If you still hold the idea of "bearing a few years of hardship and selling up when the house price goes up," it will not only lower your current quality of life, but also be difficult after three or five years after being tied to the "car" of real estate. Successfully sold.

The flow of property has been greatly reduced.xx